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Will your strategy survive a prop evaluation?

4 min read

A funded-account evaluation gives you a fixed amount you may lose before the account is closed. A strategy has a worst losing stretch. If the second number is bigger than the first, the account fails while the strategy does exactly what it did in testing. You can check this before paying the fee.

Put both numbers in R

R is the amount you risk on one trade. Measuring in R lets you compare an account rule with a strategy result.

room in R = loss room in dollars ÷ risk per trade

Your strategy's worst drawdown in R comes from your own trade record: the largest peak-to-trough fall, counted in units of risk.

A worked example

Suppose a strategy has been tested over a large number of trades, with an average result of +0.13R per trade and a worst drawdown of 13.65R. Suppose the evaluation allows $2,000 of loss and has a $3,000 profit target.

Risk per tradeRoomAgainst a 13.65R drawdown
$20010RFails
$15013.3RFails, narrowly
$10020RHolds

At $200 a trade the strategy's ordinary bad stretch closes the account. At $100 it fits, with space left over.

Then count the time

Smaller risk means the target is further away in R.

trades needed = target in R ÷ average R per trade
$3,000 ÷ $100 = 30R
30R ÷ 0.13R ≈ 225 trades

If the strategy takes two trades a day, that is about five months. The evaluation is passable, but slowly. That is the real trade-off, and it is better known before the fee is paid.

Two cautions

The check: loss room ÷ risk per trade must be comfortably larger than your worst drawdown in R. If it is not, reduce the risk per trade until it is, then decide whether the time it takes is acceptable.

These articles are education, not financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. The examples are illustrations of arithmetic. Stops can fill worse than planned, and trading involves risk of loss. See the risk disclaimer.